XC - Making the call, Payoff and "Loss"

In poker there are good lay downs and bad ones. A good - that is winning or profitable poker player is one who is able to calculate the odds of his or her hand winning against a particular opponent's hand and play or betting on those hands while laying down or quitting on the rest.

You can win a poker hand with a bad bet - putting money into a pot when your sure your friend has 4 of a kind and you are hoping for a one-outer to make your straight flush and win by getting that one card you need but it was a bad bet. On the other hand you can make a very good bet or call getting all you money in with the best hand only to loose on the river.

Yesterday I made what I felt were 3 good calls and walked away from the table without much left in my pocket.

Good call #1: Baldy - as the weather was shaping up it was clear that Baldy would work but possibly East which is not good - hard to fly and routes are interesting. Then in the last 24 hours it turned North and possibly stronger. I spent at least 3 hours working weather to make the call and was still 52/48 coin flip on Baldy by the night before.

Good call #2: Stick to your guns. Play tight and aggressive. All morning was spent texting and talking with the crew who wanted to go to Chelan - or most did. I reworked the weather including very current trends and came up with the same call and at the coffee shop decide I would fly Baldy regardless the crews decision. (at which point I got the message that they were coming to Baldy as well)

Marginal call: - Weather was just as I figured - backing off to light and variable with lots of high pressure. On launch at 12:15 - good times and all the prevailing North was backing down to the heating up of the South bowl - It is going to be very hard to get off soon. We wanted to launch together so we call 1:00 - I am ready and feel the last of the puffs and go at 12:50.

This was marginal on two accounts - first, launching first you never know and it was a mega sink fest all the way to 500 over the North LZ - I have never had that much sink on a North launch at Baldy it was so bad that my right leg couldn't stop shaking for 10 minutes. When I hit the lift it was hard and nasty. - So launching first I got to fly for 45 minutes waiting for everyone else to get their puffs - rather their first puff, I flew alone for most of my flight.

Which was the second marginal part of that call - by leaving first I was worn out fighting the low pressure lift bubbles by the time everyone else was launched.

Good call #3 - well I think it was good - after 50 minutes or so of flying in the most disturbing lift, sink and winglessness I can remember - except one other very High pressure day last summer I had had it. Toping at 5,500 and remembering that prior bad day I decided there wasn't a flight to be had that was worth another 2-3 hours of this kind of struggle. At least it wasn't worth it to me. So I decided to land. Even though the others were in the air and struggling to get up just as I had - two made it big and 3 didn't in the end, I would top land (if safe) and drive down.

It was a good call but the river hit and Mer and Frank took the pot. Mer worked a long time at Baldy then went South late toward and eventually to Sunnyside and Frank took bold lower than usual line to Vantage working all the way, had a save at the crossing then boated all the way to just short of Moses Lake.

In the end I walked away putting 6 hours into weather and 6 hours of driving to get a 17 point FAI triangle and one lesson - Keep making good calls and maybe add some patience to the mix . If you walk away happy with your calls and all-ins it is not a loss in the long run even if your friends scoop the big money on a given day. Great flights you guys.

Baldy Spring - Ya all come on in the water is fine!

Today the sky gods rolled their cumulative dice? (how do you spell the possessed object plural form of dice, die? di? dye? hmmm.) Anyway the gang was nearly all there including a Baldy newbie and score keeper of renown Bill, he,having never flown the site, with new wing in hand out flew us all.

Several in the neighborhood of the truck stop others to Thorp - some in the LZ and one fool went south. - Everyone was ducking boomers and all had great tales of how their cloud was the most menacing.



A little vid of what the sky looked like. - Launch at 11:15 out of the sky by 12:45 or better.

DD2

Doug on Launch

While Doc and Mer were flying amazing flights to the North from Chelan, Doug Hoffman and I took on a site which has tickled our fancy and mostly Doc's fancy for a long time.

DD2 - the name you will have to ask, AKA "Sunnyside" is a marginal peak for launching PG's but it sits on a major SW facing solar collector between the tri-cities and Yakima so it has some convenience factors and as Doug showed today can be the start point for North flights toward Saddle and beyond. -

Doug took the Route one which is Due North toward Mattawa and I went West toward Yakima.

We got a bit of a late start (clouds shut us down an hour after we got started) but for a first thermal flight from the site it was great. (Doc was first off last week during a Paradriving day)

When things start cooking for real it may be a quick alternative launch site for Tri-Cities pilots who don't have time to go to Baldy but do have a driver.



That is one of the problems - 1/2 hour or better off road to launch. 4wd only

Great Air though, great collector and lots of room to fly!

Tomorrow - SADDLE for Some wimpy points for the XC league - Lots of ridge early in the morning.

http://www.paraglidingforum.com/leonardo/league/US/2010.04/brand:all,cat:1,class:all,xctype:all,club:0.6

Check out the standings - quite a race and Mer hasn't posted her big one.

Kiona Works - Big Smiles

Today was a great Kiona day - winds were a bit strong but for those who like such things it was great.

A crew came via Saddle which was blown and I think most flew - some benching up from down low.

Rick and I continued our battle for bragging rights. - LEO is down right now but we both gave a run SE after 2 or more down and backs - and thanks to Bob B for the retrieve.

Thermic conditions were quite exciting - lots of strong lift but it stopped near 3,000 or so MSL.

Good lift band out front and another on the ridge top. - best lift was out front but you needed to be 3-500 over to work it well.

John K had an amazing tandem. - took it low and skimmed all the way to the LZ from way low in front of TOY BOY - I would have given 10 to 1 that he would dust, but he pulled it off - Amazing.

There were a couple of draggs and snag with the winds - - My only advise is start lower and make sure your wing is dead into the wind on launch. - HANDS UP!!!! - and have total stable control on landing or abort. - If you are even a bit off balance you WILL get dragged.

Hope everyone had fun and got a feel for how fun Kiona can be.

No video today - but Here is a Kiona video if you haven't seen it.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WQW1gswQz3o

P.
Check tomorrow for points. - I think we topped at about 3400ft msl - don't know if I got that high but it was just soooo much fun I am still giggling.

Baldy Fires Off - OD

Today a toe was dipped in the thermic waters of Eastern WA. - A small happy crew launched.

We were early - My fault - three of us paid the price and one went too near the Columbia. - Guess who.

My second flight (video) was seek and avoid. - Lots of lift - but to go above 5,000ft was to commit to the clouds and 25,000ft or more. - By the time I made it to 82 sliding in and out of the edges of lift I was in the only blue except the firing range. -

Nice looking clouds, right? - Well.

Even in the blue I had nothing but "suck" - two sets of spirals - see below - got me nicely down to a LZ with great access for a ride back to E-burg and Mexican food.

This kind of flying is not for the faint-of-heart nor those who haven't been "sucked" and survived prior flights. - Flying skies like these is not recommended.

More Lift Than I Wanted

Spring has Sprung and XCSkies indicated a window of moderate winds and conditional instability today. - The next week or so didn't look good - or at least I won't be able to fly for a while so I bit the bullet and went to the only West facing hill that would get me up in the STUFF.

I waited on the hill for an hour and a half to give the freight trains a chance to calm themselves and then with much trepidation and a bit of "damm damm damm" I gave it a go.

As soon as I was off the hill I knew it was a bad call. - Big sink - big lift back and forth and Selah Butte is not forgiving. - I pushed out hoping for a smooth one but got a rocker instead.

If you watch this video note how my feet go up as the wing rock backs. - And I was giving back to the wing as I rocked into the big T. -


It may be that winter has shaved my bump tolerance down a bit but I just was not ready for this much activity.
P.

Fly as much as you want

Today was a great day at Kiona. - Bill flew early -
Winds pick up and created very strong conditions. - I even broke my speed and had to land to fix it.
Second launch was highest wind I have taken on yet apx 22 - Pluck straight up and onto speed. - Great fun if you know what to expect.
Mini video for your enjoyment:

Total Air time almost 4 hours

Parked and Climbing

Just remember, just because you can launch high winds does not make it a good idea.

No flying - lots of rain and a window late in the day with SW winds just about max.

Off I ran to beat sunset and launched Bob's bump low.

UP I WENT - 1/2 bar and so little forward motion my vario recorded 5 short flights each less than a minute because I was parked!!!

Actual likely better than 20 minutes start to finish and happy to be down. I never went backwards "for long."

Dave

Mixed Bag - Speed & Saddle

Today was a mixed bag. Saddle was a hard call; first it looked great then as time went by wind projections and measurements indicated blown out city.

This was the second time in a week that early hope-filled projections turned into fringe flyable conditions. Very frustrating.

Friday night I was in Seattle for a meeting so it was on the way home at E-burg that I needed to make my own call for the day. Just before heading South and home on 82 I got a call from launch with a 10mph N report. Redirect and check it out. Off to launch.

Sure, it was OK early, but when I got there it was top-end and NNW which is not good. I set up for launch but couldn't control my poorly stuff sacked wing in the high winds and almost fed it to a barbed wire fence near the towers. (Back she goes into the stuff sack)

Two hangs took off while I was thrashing about and by the time I was back on launch two other friends (Armon & Mark) with speed wings were ready to huck.

I don't know, those little critters just seem sketch - They had a great time and I packed it in. (late report of a break in at the LZ - Armon's rig)

On the way home just past the Sunnyside cutoff in the burn area South of HWY 24 at Black Rock a new "fire road" had just been cut up the hill. Only the cat had traversed, no 4-wheel tracks yet. I always wondered about that hill .... - Up I went - no signs - just no hunting "public use of private lands is a privilege not a right." The hill took everything my Tundra had and at the lower NE facing ridge I found it soarable, just. - Future will tell if I go back but as for today I flew. Think I will call it "Black Rock One."

You can go to Leonardo if you want to see site details.

After I flew I went to the top of the ridge where it was blown out, but the shape is great - just access and permission issues - also if it is working on this ridge it is likely Saddle will be working as well so I don't know how useful a site it will be. Watch this space for future site reports.

P.

Ridge Soaring

Back from Valle and back to the hills.

On my return as part of my welcome home Gail took me to Bob's for a sledder and then it was day on and day off ridge soaring.
Check Leonardo for the details but basicaly it has been 2 flights a week. Most not worth noting even a full on day of parawaiting with only 10 minutes in the air to show for it.

Today was another good one though - as with the long flight at Saddle last week, Kiona was predicted to be good this Thursday afternoon. - Actualy too good. - Winds were a solid 18 to 20 out of the NW.

Now NW at 12-14 is ok at Kiona but 18 to 20 - Launchable but not landable. The points for toplanding were covered with nasty lea rotor from finger ridges. - Kiona faces NE so NW is a bit nasty. - Lift was great and strong but lots of Parking.

On my first pass East I didn't go all the way down the ridge because the cross would clealy not sustain a return. - Pushing NW was almost stand still till 1/2 bar. Then the issue was where to land - I worked up to the Hang launch and nothing - not even low on toyboy would work - As soon as I approched ridge the rotor started to kick up.

Back to the East - If it wouldn't sustain before maybe it would also be less rotor - well it was - hovering over the ridge top 3/4 mile from my truck I settled in for a full on shutdown with C/D's in a tumble to land stop. - Work just as planned and with a bit of a hike I was back in my warm truck - another hour in the log book and looking for more.

Can anyone say "crack addict."

Good thing I have never tried it.
Dave.

Till we meet again.

Well that is just about everybody. When I count my XC friends, they are almost all here or have been. – If you weren’t here, you know who you are. (dangle away)

Last day and it seems like the party is just starting, though it has been going strong for several weeks.

Two contingents of big boy sky gods arrived in the past 36 hours, or so, and they have been and will be tearing up the sky.


Today's flight began with a relaxing wait after a minor wing repair. Then the flight was on:

It was a "fair thee well" for me as I said good by and explicative deleted to Crazy.(If I ever suggested you go there, don’t, we can talk later) That wall tried to kill me – three times!!! Finally, I said enough and ducked around the corner and had a pleasant ride to the rim.

Next, a bit of a battle at the wall proper but nothing too extreme. The main gaggle arrived as I was popping the wall and we gained 1200 or more above as we worked on a clean climb. Just about mid climb a Green snake (Boom or N) blew past my right wing at mach-one, a bit lower than me to "join us." As he(she) did, I was waked to kingomcome and ended below the bottom of the stack, never too recover. [Curse You Red Barron].

Anyway, it blew the climb and I had to reengage. At some point I ended up on the way back past the rock and climbed back to position to assault the upper mesa again.

Chatter on the radio called(ended) the task (another story) so we were “free.” Poised to strike I figured with my altitude I could give it another try so I dove back in and cranked the wall and back to G. Not bad, enough to transition to the spine and worked the prevailing and lea side stuff till crazy had me again. Ratty, good lift but not enough for the transition to Maguey. Got up a bit, maybe 8400 or so but only enough to rock a ride back to the rock where lift was sweet.

Over the back and toward Sacamacatie, nothing - so a slide to the field East of the little rocks. = Out past me a wing looked to be climbing - so rather than think about landing I thought about climbing.

I hooked in and slowing moved into a nice ride up! After 4 or 5 turns in clear lift I noted a wing on my quarter inbound. My though was - “here it is,” just as I realized it was Mer.

Nothing better than a friend showing up to show you the way home at the end of a hard day’s work.

We floated the convergence and hooked a few on the way back, Mer having gone to Salcos first. Pushing further looked dicey so I held back as Mer checked out the Westerly ground – not much happen there so I called Lake and I soon had company home.

We both had plenty, Mer took the lake side and I took La Torre. I got to play the ridge/thermal game and watched as she floated like a dandelion puff, back and forth cross the city.

On landing, with a comic tackle, a perfect two weeks has come to an end.

Thank you all for doing what you did to help me be as happy as I am.

P.

hmmmm.

Well, much has been learned. - The effort round the lake was fun but not completed yet. Today was another day for it but due to my own stupidity my vario died mid effort half way between Megui and Divs

Without a vario I should be very happy to have made it back which I did but it feels like I went to a great play but the lead had a second for that night only. It was just a great day with potential and I had to quit mid stride.

One day of flying left. Then massive depression - Friends should call me on Tuesday and see if I am alive.

Love.
P

They Say Ya Got to Call it.

Round the Lake on Tue.
We will see.

Today it was Div and step one.
P

Today was the day - Not Yesterday!

Yesterday was trash - good lift but everyone wanted out of the air due to wind layer shear at several levels. - no fun.

Today was more fun - 20 or so miles xc up east of a town called Almonarco. - Nice - Lots of flying and thermaling in the clouds. - Got wet and had a wild landing in thermic valley winds.

More flying tomorrow.
P.

Eating Humble Pie

Yesterday was a tight little window with a flush in the middle. First off, “launched it” and the second gaggle did well as well – Not amazing but nice convergence.

On the other hand I launched into the flush and just could not get up, landing just short of the piano with my tail between my legs.

Later we launched La Tore(sp?) the town site and I got a great glass flight with thermic lift to 9,000 feet, nowhere to go but a nice flight and a lake “landing”. BTW Don’t talk while landing.

- That was yesterday – and today was totally Blown Out!!!
- Tomorrow We Fly

Too Laid Back - You Decide.

Div.

Best flight yet - Out to Divisidero(sp?) at the end of the mesas. Then back to the lake. About 25 miles total. 1 hr 50 min. No photos, I forgot my SD chip in the computer.s

You can not do a flight like today's without good friends. Thanks Stefan and most of all Mer for showing the way.

P.

Don’t Leave Too Early

Always responding to fear I left early again. This time I was worried winds would get too strong on launch so I wanted to bug out before it got nasty. Good Idea – It got nasty a bit. But BAD IDEA I had to scratch for about an hour.

Great lift in front of El Peńon took me high with a friend direct over the mesa, high and East of the wall transition. – Ran the ridge way above and lost a bit near G spot. Gaggle of Norwegians were past the G spot working the NW corner. I couldn’t shoot the gap at first (too low) but then caught a nice one off the wall and eventually we all ended up in the same gaggle.

Ran the Spine. And watched as the Norwegians popped off the end and find nice thermal from the town trigger. – Tried to catch them but couldn’t – hung out on the spine till a ripper took me above the G spot again to over 10k.

I was now in the position to go or no go to div. or the lake. – Just flip for it in my head and decide my position was good and went for the far wall should have went for the hill but I will never know. – worked the inner wall and failed – found new friends at the bottom of the wash out who packed me out and gave me a ride home.

Might be a business for them. They seemed quite happy to see me.

More tomorrow.
P.

Great flying

Day 2 of flying.

Overcast but nice lift with low cloud base. Again I left early and topped house at 8.4k or so and bugged out for El Penon. Worked the wall and up over the Mesa. This time I was at the transition to 3 kings too early so I worked back and took the Mesa route back to launch.

– Gave a good Kaa, Kaa to my Eagle PG friends and cored back to departure altitude. One of the best parts of the flight was that climb. About half way up I hooked up with Tre or Ty or one of the Eagle Guys whoever flies a Orange and White UP comp or 2/3. – Anyway he was cranked over and was moving FAST – I put my wing on end and we went tip to tip for about 2 minutes right in the center of the core. No one was around us and it was just amazing to be cranked over at least 60 deg. Going up and going very very fast with another fast glider at close range. – What a kick. He was hooting as well – We Just had a blast.

Second best part of my flight was Ralph B. who really kicked it running the ridge and ending up with a fantastic flight. As Ralph was landing I had left the clouds and was in route to 3 kings. – Just prior to this I had been totally white out trying to keep a compass line but not to well and worrying about a gray and blue mantra below me. As I headed west for the hills behind 3 kings I made a good effort at keeping in the clouds and maximum lift but my initial heading was off by 90 degrees or so so I lost some initial altitude for the gap.

Had I know what the other pilots plans were I would have gaggled up but I didn’t so I struck out on my own and ended up on the far ridge scratching unable to maintain. The other pilots were Norwegians and their plans were the same as mine but they were working together.

Eventually 7 of them ganged up and went for the kings. – 4 made it and 3 ended up with me. I found a nice little field and within 10 minutes I was sharing with my ancestral kinsmen. One of them told of telling the other to land where I landed because he knew the owner.

Great call – I was lucky, they had the experience – At this field a nice young man named Juan loaded us up in is tricked out truck – drove us to San Pablo for lunch and then all the way to our hotels in Valle – 100 p. What a great place to land. Maybe tomorrow I will go over the back at some point and see if I can make the lake. All is well –

Waiting for Doc to arrive. Preacher

Valle Day 3 - great flying - quite quiet though

Day two was much more like what we had hoped for.

The day began with promise of 11k cloud base and overdevelopment. There were at least 150 pilots on launch and as soon as I figured I could stay up I boooggied.

It turned out to be a great call - the lines started and it took a long time to get off launch. I just bugged out. 30 seconds after my launch I found my vario not working - no known cause but it meant flying all day with no audio indication of up or down. This is good practice but it makes coring thermals very difficult.

Even with the loss of my primary instrument I was able to punch a hole in the sky that made me happy.

No one else was really heading out for El Pinon and I looked at my GPS and it said I was at 9k. and El Pinon was on easy glide so boogied out and I took the rock to 10k or so near and over the wall - never pushed back into the g spot cloud base was sooo low on the mesa that it was not the place to go. So I pushed strait for crazy and found nothing. I had to go back scratching below the G spot and worked back to El Pinon at near treetop for a save to well over 9K.

Now push back again but this time the clouds were socking in. Took a nice street all the way to the end of the ridge but ended up quite low - had to scratch and finally snagged a thermal thanks to a local. Got back over 8 and pushed south of 3 kings hoping to get to the mountains. But I was too low on the crossing and landed about 16k from launch - a very nice 1:45 min flight.

My driver back a bit of the way was 12 years old - his mom seemed ok with it. Then right into a pickup that got me to Jovan's by 3 - a quick lunch and 2 beers and back to launch for a glassoff.


The air was very active and some of our crew picked landing rather than flying 3 or 4 made it to the lake.

Great Job Ya All. I know Ralph, C.J. and Paul made lake landings. - WAY TO GO

More later.
Preacher

Phaze Two

RAIN